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Election 2020: Slight gains for Trump

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Biden
Trump
> 99.9% probability of winning
< 0.1% probability of winning
Mean of 380 electoral votes
Mean of 158 electoral votes


Electoral College Map

Alabama Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Connecticut Delaware Florida Georgia Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Lousiana Maine Maryland Massachusettes Michigan Minnesota Mississippi Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia D.C. Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming

Electoral College Map

Georgia Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Delaware Connecticut Florida Mississippi Alabama Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Louisiana Maine Maryland Massachusetts Michigan Minnesota Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia D.C. Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming

Some 40 new state head-to-head polls have been released since my previous analysis was posted last Friday. Many of the new polls have been taken partially or fully after the death of Supreme Court Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg, an event that could possibly change the dynamics of the Presidential race between Democrat Joe Biden and Republican Donald Trump. If so, it has not affected the expected outcome of a (hypothetical) election held now.

After 100,000 simulated elections, Biden wins 100,000 times and Trump wins 0 times. Biden received (on average) 380 to Trump’s 158 electoral votes. In an election held now, Biden would have a greater than 99.9% probability of winning and Trump would have a less than 0.1% probability of winning.

Last week’s analysis gave Biden 389 and Trump 149 electoral votes (on average) so, for the moment, Biden has stopped gaining electors, although it is too early to say that Trump has the momentum going forward. With newly released polls, Trump made modest gains in Nebraska’s 2nd congressional district (13% to 39% probability of winning that district’s elector) and Texas (22% to 48% probability of winning the state). He made smaller gains in Georgia (12% to 15%), North Carolina (23% to 29%) and South Carolina (92% to 96%). At the same time, Trump lost modest ground in Alabama (100% to 77%) and Louisiana (100% to 87%) and lost a bit of ground in Iowa (66% to 63%).

Here is the distribution of electoral votes [FAQ] from the simulations:

Ten most probable electoral vote outcomes for Biden (full distribution here):

  • 369 electoral votes with a 2.55% probability
  • 360 electoral votes with a 2.11% probability
  • 413 electoral votes with a 2.05% probability
  • 389 electoral votes with a 2.00% probability
  • 407 electoral votes with a 1.78% probability
  • 375 electoral votes with a 1.78% probability
  • 397 electoral votes with a 1.68% probability
  • 385 electoral votes with a 1.66% probability
  • 406 electoral votes with a 1.57% probability
  • 395 electoral votes with a 1.54% probability

The long term trend in this race can be seen from a series of elections simulated every seven days using polls from 23-Sep-2019 to 23-Sep-2020, and including polls from the preceding month (when possible…see the FAQ).

[Read more…]

Open Thread

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The judicial norms breaking is leading nowhere good. But unilateral norms breaking seems bad too. So here is my proposal if the Republicans nominate and approve a Justice to replace RBG and Democrats get a trifecta.

First off, do the maximum judicial stuff. Add 100 seats to the Supreme Court. Strip the lower courts of power, replace them with a different system, and fill that with liberal judges. The whole 9 yards.

While this is happening, propose an amendment to the Constitution. Many states have commissions or other means of making judicial appointments fair. Pick the best one and adopt it. It also fires all judges except for cases they are working on. If Republicans want a cease fire, they can pass the amendment, if not at least there will be a liberal court for a while.

Anyway, wash your hands right now.

Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza!

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act.tv: RFK’s ripple of hope still matters today.

Eleven Films: Unite against the violence.

Biden-Harris 2020:

Stephen: Journalist Jacob Soboroff on children being tortured inside America’s immigration detention centers.

Now This: Women in ICE custody say they were subjected to unwanted hysterectomies

Roll Call: Congressional hits and misses of the week.

RIP RBG:

WaPo: Understanding WeChat, the essential Chinese social media app.

Vice News: This Texas County is taking the drive-thru model for voting.

Solana Rice and Jeremie Greer: Racism is profitable

The Dotard Трамп and Other Murderous Despot Wannabes:

Stephen: Journalist Jacob Soboroff—Americans are not paying attention to atrocities happening in our immigration system.

Courtney Jaye: Ted has no balls

Vox: What long voting lines in the US really mean

ТрампPlague:

BuzzFeed: How the stock market works in under 8 minutes

Naomi Ekperigin (Full Frontal): From memes to movement—Is Instagram activism getting us anywhere?

Last week’s Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza can be found here.

Election 2020: Biden is still gaining on Trump

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Biden
Trump
> 99.9% probability of winning
< 0.1% probability of winning
Mean of 389 electoral votes
Mean of 149 electoral votes


Electoral College Map

Alabama Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Connecticut Delaware Florida Georgia Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Lousiana Maine Maryland Massachusettes Michigan Minnesota Mississippi Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia D.C. Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming

Electoral College Map

Georgia Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Delaware Connecticut Florida Mississippi Alabama Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Louisiana Maine Maryland Massachusetts Michigan Minnesota Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia D.C. Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming

My previous analysis was before the conventions. Now, roughly a month after the conventions, any movement from the conventions should become apparent.

To assess an election held today, we simulate 100,000 elections using the past month of polls as “current” and only using older polls if there are no current polls. From that exercise, Joe Biden won all 100,000. Biden received (on average) 389 to Donald Trump’s 149 electoral votes, a modest improvement for Biden from the 378 to 160 electoral vote lead he had at the end of July. In an election held now, Biden would have a greater than 99.9% probability of winning.

The long term trends in this race can be seen from a series of elections simulated every seven days using polls from 18 Sep 2019 to 18 Sep 2020, and including polls from the preceding month (FAQ).

Clearly, Biden has the lead and the momentum at this point in the election season, with his expected electoral vote total tending to climb since January. Details for the the most recent simulation is found below the fold.

[Read more…]

Wednesday Open Thread

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Are you surviving the smoke? It’s pretty gross. I live in the urban core, and according to Google Maps the farthest building I could see from my window is less than half a mile. And even that is an improvement from earlier in the week.

If you have to work outside, or go outside for any reason, I feel for you. Gross, gross, gross.

And, you still have to wash your hands. So wash your hands right now.

Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza!

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Bill Maher: Side with teacher.

Roy Zimmerman: : I approve this message.

Biden—Harris 2020:

Samantha Bee: Why police aren’t protecting our kids in school.

Vox: How America can leave fossil fuels behind, in one chart

Seth Meyers: Jane Fonda on Nixon ordering her arrest and civil disobedience

The Dotard Трамп and Other Slackers, Prevaricators and Incompetents:

Roll Call: Congressional hits and misses of the week

Roy Zimmerman: Defenders of Marriage (performed in 2017).

Jimmy Dore: Mitt Romney really likes eggs!

ТрампPlague:

Trevor: Jane Fonda—Civil disobedience in the name of climate change.

Last week’s Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza can be found here.

Wednesday Open Thread

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Are you surviving the fires? Jeez it seemed like it happened all at once. And all of the smoke. Stay safe and follow any evacuation orders.

And wash your hands.

Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza!

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Samantha Bee: How marginalizing women’s health created a market for pseudoscience products.

Biden—Harris 2020:

Jimmy Dore: Putin takes credit for defeating Kennedy dynasty!

The Dotard Трамп and Other Pimps, Grifters, and Corrupt Bastards:

Now This: Pastor speaks out on voter suppression in the Hispanic community

Racism in America

Robert Reich: How Big Money corrupts our politics (and how to fix it).

ТрампPlague:

The New Yorker: Greenland thrives after Трамп tried to buy the island

Last week’s Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza can be found here.

Friday Open Thread

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Sorry it’s so late! I had to get up early for work and then I forgot to write this. So I thought that I would write it at lunch, but that slipped my mind when I was making lunch. Then I went for a walk right after work and now it’s past 8:30…

Anyway, wash your hands right now.

Wednesday Open Thread

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The people who make police accountability more difficult make defunding more likely. Now we find out more about the investigation of the King County deputy who shot a man in the back. It’s pretty grim stuff. From an investigation clearly meant to exonerate to lying to the media, this investigation was no good.

As the article mentions, Initiative 940 passed since then provides more accountability. So I hope that will prevent situations like this from happening again. But if it doesn’t, I don’t know what to do other than defunding.

Anyway, wash your hands right now.

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