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Wednesday Open Thread

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Man. Seattle sports teams. The Mariners breaking the playoff drought. And OL Reign coming in first in the NWSL.

We may ir may not get a Mariners home game in the playoffs. But OL Reign are playing at Lumen Field. And if you haven’t been to one of there games, let me recommend a trip. The crowd is a lot of fun during the regular season, and I imagine it will be even more during the playoffs. The team took a while to get started but have been playing great for a while now.

Anyway, please wash your hands right now. And get vaccinated or boosted if you’re eligible.

Senate Race 2022

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Senate Democrats*
Senate Republicans
97.2% probability
2.8% probability
Mean of 51 seats
Mean of 49 seats

Electoral College Map

Alabama Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Connecticut Delaware Florida Georgia Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Lousiana Maine Maryland Massachusettes Michigan Minnesota Mississippi Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia D.C. Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming

I saw a headline today saying that Republicans had made some gains in the Senate contest. So I decided to update the polls and see what tale they had to tell.

The previous analysis from 12 days ago gave the Democrats a 98.1% probability of taking the Senate with a mean of 51 seats.

With today’s polls, after 100000 simulated elections, Democrats have a Senate majority 74100 times, there were 23093 ties), and Republicans control the Senate 2807 times. Democrats have a 97.2% probability of controlling the Senate and Republicans have a 2.8% probability of controlling the Senate. So, I guess there was a tiny movement toward Republican control.

Some states, like Colorado, Illinois, and New Hampshire, have moved a bit more into the Democrat column. But Ohio, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin have gone the other way. It is almost a wash.

Here is the distribution of Senate seats from the simulations:*

This graphs shows the probability of at least each number of seats controlled by the Democrats:*

  • 100000 simulations: Democrats control the Senate 97.2%, Republicans control the Senate 2.8%.
  • Average ( SE) seats for Democrats: 51.2 ( 1.1)
  • Average (SE) seats for Republicans: 48.8 ( 1.1)
  • Median (95% CI) seats for Democrats: 51 (49, 53)
  • Median (95% CI) seats for Republicans: 49 (47, 51)

Expected outcomes from the simulations:

  • Democratic seats w/no election: 34
  • Independent seats w/no election: two
  • Republican seats w/no election: 29
  • Contested Democratic seats likely to remain Democratic: 13
  • Contested Republican seats likely to remain Republican: 20
  • Contested Democratic seats likely to switch: one
  • Contested Republican seats likely to switch: one

This table shows the number of Senate seats controlled for different criteria for the probability of winning a state:* Safe>0.9999, Strong>90%, Leans>60%, Weak>50%

Threshold Safe + Strong + Leans + Weak
Safe Democrat 47
Strong Democrat 3 50
Leans Democrat 0 0 50
Weak Democrat 0 0 0 50
Weak Republican 0 0 0 50
Leans Republican 5 5 50
Strong Republican 10 45
Safe Republican 35

This table summarizes the results by state. Click on the poll number to see the individual polls included for a state.

# Sample Percent Percent Democrat Republican
State @ polls size Democrat Republican % wins % wins
AL 0 0 (0) (100)
AK 0 0 (0) (100)
AZ 9 6018 54.3 45.7 100.0 0.0
AR 1 618 41.3 58.7 0.1 99.9
CA 0 0 (100) (0)
CO 3 2667 55.0 45.0 100.0 0.0
CT 2 2435 58.4 41.6 100.0 0.0
FL 6 3396 47.5 52.5 2.0 98.0
GA 8 7128 51.2 48.8 92.9 7.1
HI 0 0 (100) (0)
ID 0 0 (0) (100)
IL 1 805 61.7 38.3 100.0 0.0
IN 1 456 48.7 51.3 35.1 64.9
IA 1& 514 45.3 54.7 6.9 93.1
KS 1 784 42.2 57.8 0.1 99.9
KY 1& 588 41.5 58.5 0.3 99.7
LA 0 0 (0) (100)
MD 1 666 62.9 37.1 100.0 0.0
MO 2 1560 43.3 56.7 0.0 100.0
NV 5 3721 48.8 51.2 15.6 84.4
NH 7 5381 54.1 45.9 100.0 0.0
NY 2 1454 62.6 37.4 100.0 0.0
NC 5 3603 49.2 50.8 24.3 75.7
ND 0 0 (0) (100)
OH 5 3698 49.3 50.7 26.9 73.1
OK 2 814 43.6 56.4 0.4 99.6
OK 1 430 39.5 60.5 0.1 99.9
OR 2 1507 61.4 38.6 100.0 0.0
PA 9 6780 52.6 47.4 99.9 0.1
SC 1& 546 40.7 59.3 0.0 100.0
SD 0 0 (0) (100)
UT 3 1198 46.6 53.4 4.7 95.3
VT 1 996 53.5 46.5 94.5 5.5
WA 5 3361 54.4 45.6 100.0 0.0
WI 8 5709 49.2 50.8 18.4 81.6

@ Current party in office
& An older poll was used (i.e. no recent polls exist).
*Analysis assume that independent candidates will caucus with the Democrats.

Details of the methods are given in the FAQ.

Drinking Liberally — Seattle

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DLBottle DLBottle

This is your weekly reminder that the Seattle Chapter of Drinking Liberally is the place to go to discuss politics over the beverage of your choice. And tonight is the night.

The Seattle Chapter of Drinking Liberally meets every Tuesday at the Roanoke Park Place Tavern (2409 10th Ave E, Seattle) starting at 8pm out on the back patio.

Chapters of Living Liberally are all over the place…if you can’t make it to the Seattle chapter, there is probably another nearby chapter for you.

Monday Open Thread

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Good morning. Let’s start taking steps to get to a place where we can breach the dams on the Snake River. Excellent for salmon. We’ll have to figure out ways to replace the energy the dams produce. But it’s great to push for.

Rep. Dan Newhouse is opposed to any dam removal because he’s fighting a war on fishing. He wants the Snake River as dead as possible. He hates the recreation and transportation that could be achieved.

Anyway, please wash your hands right now. And get vaccinated or boosted if you’re eligible.

Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza!

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Jon Stewart and Friends: Brett Favre and the Mississippi Welfare Scandal

Katie Phang: Upcoming term full of more blockbuster cases

Amber Ruffin: Hillary and Chelsea Clinton

Vice News: Indigenous tribes push back against evangelical missionaries

Now This: How Dolores Huerta continues to inspire immigration activsts

Lewis Black: 100 fucks given

Tales of The Dotard Трамп and Other MAGA Thieves, Liars, and Grifters:

Mehdi Hasan: DACA’s survival again rests in the courts

Amber Ruffin: The Little Mermaid is Black. GET OVER IT!

Vox: Who’s really using up the water in the American West?

Liberal Redneck: Biden’s gaffes

The New York Times: Family caught in immigration battle reaches NYC—“The bus left us here”

Last week’s Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza can be found here.

Drinking Liberally — Seattle

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DLBottle DLBottle The Seattle Chapter of Drinking Liberally is meeting this evening for some discussion of politics over drinks. Join us if you wish.

The Seattle Chapter of Drinking Liberally meets every Tuesday at the Roanoke Park Place Tavern (2409 10th Ave E, Seattle) starting at 8pm out on the back patio.

Chapters of Living Liberally are all over the place…if you can’t make it to the Seattle chapter, there is probably another nearby chapter for you.

Monday Open Thread

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Good morning. Are you excited about Darryl doing Senate poll watching? I am. But I do want to note that the polls are a snapshot in time in a series of events you can shape. You, yes you, can help influence who is in the Senate next year. You can make calls. You can text bank. You can donate. You can (and hopefully will) vote. You can knock on doors.

And you can get vaccinated for goodness sake. Or get boosted with the bivalent booster if you’re eligible.

Monday Open Thread

by — ,

Good morning. Are you excited about Darryl doing Senate poll watching? I am. But I do want to note that the polls are a snapshot in time in a series of events you can shape. You, yes you, can help influence who is in the Senate next year. You can make calls. You can text bank. You can donate. You can (and hopefully will) vote. You can knock on doors.

And you can get vaccinated for goodness sake. Or get boosted with the bivalent booster if you’re eligible.

Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza!

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Stephen: A fix for the chronic underrepresentation of Hispanics and Latinos on television

VICE News: Authors of banned books speak out

WaPo: How the NFL blocks Black coaches

LegalEagle: Don’t record your crimes!

NowThis: Black Women’s Equal Pay Day 2022—How to close the wealth gap

The Dotard Трамп:

The New Yorker: One woman’s mission to feed Harlem

Robert Reich: The truth behind “self-made” billionaires

Liberal Redneck: Stacey Abrams, heartbeats, and Georgia

Alicia Menendez: President Biden seeks to restore trust in American Democracy

Last week’s Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza can be found here.

Election 2022: Control of the Senate

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Senate Democrats*
Senate Republicans
98.1% probability
1.9% probability
Mean of 51 seats
Mean of 49 seats

Electoral College Map

Alabama Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Connecticut Delaware Florida Georgia Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Lousiana Maine Maryland Massachusettes Michigan Minnesota Mississippi Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia D.C. Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming

Election analyses are back! Today’s topic: Who will control the U.S. Senate after the mid-term elections?

We can answer this question by aggregating polling data that has been publicly released over the past year or so. The FAQ covers the methods but, in short, I am using polling data along with Monte Carlo simulation methods to assess probabilistic winners for each state and an overall probability of who will control the Senate.

Using voter preferences found in the past month of polls (whenever possible), 100,000 elections were simulated in each state. The result: Democrats had a Senate majority 82,684 times and there were 15,449 50-50 ties (these go to the Democrats, as VP Kamala Harris breaks Senate ties). Republicans controlled the Senate only 1867 times.

The results: If the election was held now, Democrats would have a 98.1% probability of controlling the Senate.

I’ll highlight just a few races.

Nevada is looking more and more like a Republican pick-up. Democrat Catherine Cortez Masto, the incumbent, has been losing to Republican Adam Laxalt in the last 4 polls. These suggest she would only have a 17.3% probability of winning right now. This is a recent trend, as Cortez Masto has lead in most of the earlier polling this year.

Ohio: In this Republican-held open seat, Democrat Tim Ryan is running against Republican J.D. Vance. Ryan has the polling advantage, but Vance has lead in the last three of six polls taken this month. Control of the Senate may turn on whether Ryan gets his mojo back.

Pennsylvania: Pennsylvanians know a carpetbagger when they see one, and they look determined to send Dr. Mehmet Oz (R) back to New Jersey. By leading in every poll this year, John Fetterman (D) has amassed a convincing lead in the race.

Wisconsin: Incumbent Senator Ron Johnson (R) just might lose his seat to Mandela Barnes (D). Barnes has lead in most polls this year. The race, based only on the last month of polling, is a tie. This race may be the one that control of the Senate hinges on.

Back to the topic of control of the Senate, here is the distribution of seats from the simulations:*

This graphs shows the probability of at least each number of seats controlled by the Democrats.* There is about a 40% chance of Democrats having at least 52 seats, the magic number that gives some immunity to Sinema—Manchin Dyspepsia.

  • 100000 simulations: Democrats control the Senate 98.1%, Republicans control the Senate 1.9%.
  • Average ( SE) seats for Democrats: 51.4 ( 1.0)
  • Average (SE) seats for Republicans: 48.6 ( 1.0)
  • Median (95% CI) seats for Democrats: 51 (50, 53)
  • Median (95% CI) seats for Republicans: 49 (47, 50)

Expected outcomes from the simulations:

  • Democratic seats w/no election: 34
  • Independent seats w/no election: two
  • Republican seats w/no election: 29
  • Contested Democratic seats likely to remain Democratic: 12
  • Contested Republican seats likely to remain Republican: 19
  • Contested Democratic seats likely to switch: two
  • Contested Republican seats likely to switch: two

This table shows the number of Senate seats controlled for different criteria for the probability of winning a state:* Safe>0.9999, Strong>90%, Leans>60%, Weak>50%

Threshold Safe + Strong + Leans + Weak
Safe Democrat 43
Strong Democrat 6 49
Leans Democrat 1 1 50
Weak Democrat 0 0 0 50
Ties 1 1 1 1
Weak Republican 1 1 1 49
Leans Republican 2 2 48
Strong Republican 8 46
Safe Republican 38

This table summarizes the results by state. Click on the poll number to see the individual polls included for a state.

# Sample Percent Percent Dem Rep
State @ polls size Dem Rep % wins % wins
AL 0 0 (0) (100)
AK 0 0 (0) (100)
AZ 8 5210 54.2 45.8 100.0 0.0
AR 1 618 41.3 58.7 0.0 100.0
CA 0 0 (100) (0)
CO 2 1448 56.3 43.7 100.0 0.0
CT 1 1853 58.8 41.2 100.0 0.0
FL 7 3775 47.7 52.3 2.5 97.5
GA 10 8481 51.0 49.0 91.1 8.9
HI 0 0 (100) (0)
ID 0 0 (0) (100)
IL 1 476 62.4 37.6 100.0 0.0
IN 0 0 (0) (100)
IA 1& 514 45.3 54.7 7.0 93.0
KS 2 1133 41.3 58.7 0.0 100.0
KY 1& 588 41.5 58.5 0.1 99.9
LA 0 0 (0) (100)
MD 1 666 62.9 37.1 100.0 0.0
MO 2 1473 43.7 56.3 0.0 100.0
NV 4 3069 48.8 51.2 17.3 82.7
NH 3 2025 55.6 44.4 100.0 0.0
NY 1 858 64.1 35.9 100.0 0.0
NC 5 3899 49.1 50.9 19.8 80.2
ND 0 0 (0) (100)
OH 6 4276 50.3 49.7 60.8 39.2
OK 2 818 37.4 62.6 0.0 100.0
OK 1 459 32.9 67.1 0.0 100.0
OR 0 0 (100) (0)
PA 7 5181 54.7 45.3 100.0 0.0
SC 1 546 40.7 59.3 0.0 100.0
SD 0 0 (0) (100)
UT 3 1198 46.6 53.4 4.6 95.4
VT 1 996 53.5 46.5 94.4 5.6
WA 3 1929 53.7 46.3 98.8 1.2
WI 5 3815 50.0 50.0 48.4 51.6

@ Current party in office
& An older poll was used (i.e. no recent polls exist).
*Analysis assume that independent candidates will caucus with the Democrats.

Details of the methods are given in the FAQ.

Note: This IS NOT an open thread. The comment section for this post is for discussion of things like polls, elections, control of the Senate, etc. Any poo-flinging is welcome at a nearby Open Thread. Thank you!

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